As I leave for Turkey…

…Iran is now threatening preemptive action against an unnamed “enemy” and I wonder who that enemy is. A western country involved in the sanctions? Probably not. Israel? Definitely. I find it funny that people use Israel’s assumed nuclear weapons capabilities as a reason why Iran should/is developing their own, when in fact the Iranian MWD development program started in response to Saddam Hussein’s use of chemical weapons in the 1980s WELL AFTER Israel was ‘known’ to be armed with nuclear weapons. This is something I didn’t actually know until my first Arms Control in the Nuclear Realm lecture a few days ago – a class that I am very much excited for. I also learned that before the Iranian Revolution, the Israeli-Iranian relationship was pretty calm. After the revolution ended it was the new Iranian “government” (I say that loosely) that decided Israel was it’s enemy. And ever since, well, you read the news right?

Two Iranian warships sailed through the Suez Canal today for only the 2nd time since 1979. I know all of this is just war games bullshit for the time being, both sides flexing their muscles and what not, but at some point either Israel or Iran is going to take one little step too far and cross over the very fine line that both of them are currently tiptoeing; they’ll be in a situation know to us in the IR world as brinksmanship. Thats when the war starts. I really don’t want a war to start.

But with all this said, I’m PUMPED to go to Istanbul for the weekend. It should be a blast.

!שבת שלום לכולם ולהתראות

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1 Comment

  1. Lorenzo Gabutti

     /  February 23, 2012

    Obviously the current President of Iran is a menace to the whole area, even more so because of his aggressive and provocative posture rather than because of the régime’s development of nukes in itself. A real pity we passed over the opportunity to bolster former President Mohammad Khatami, who until 2005 had tried desperately to bridge the gap of trust between Iran and the West, notwithstanding the stubornness of the Supreme Guide Ayatollah Khamenei – even while Bush was ranting about the “Axis of Evil” (not that Clinton was much more supportive, truth be told). Now it’s probably too late to avert a war between two nuclear (or potential nuclear) powers. Not a reassuring prospect.

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